Monday, January 5, 2009

Political Risk





Political Ideology
It is the collection of ideas, that expresses the goals, theories and aims that constitute a sociopolitical program.
Definition: A body of constructs (complex ideas), theories and aims that constitute a socio political program.
Eg: Liberal principles of democratic party and the conservative doctrine of the republican party in US.


Pluralism
It is the coexistence of different ideologies. Pluralism arises because groups within countries can differ from each other in language (belgium), class structure(UK), Ethnic background (SA), tribal groups (Afganistan) or religion (India).
Individualism/Collectivism
In individualism, the govt feels that businesses should be left alone with free market economy and the market mechanism will lead to right allocation of resources.
Eg: US, UK
Individualism refers to the primacy of the rights and role of the individual. Political officials and and agencies have a limited role in an individualistic society. Individualistic countries typically apply commercial regulations to correct market inefficiencies. Individualistic countries encourage businesses to support the good of teh greater community by promoting fair and just competition.
In collectivism govt must take collective responsibility and hence control on business and resources.
Eg. China
Collectivism refers to the primacy of the rights and role of the community. Political officials and agencies have an extreme role in a collectivist society. Govt in a collectivist society is highly connected to and interdependent with business.
Types of Government
The two extremes of the political spectrum are democracy and totalitarianism.
Democracy : Democratic systems involve wide participation by citizens in the decision making process.
Features of Contemporary Democratic political system:
  • Freedom of opinion, expression, press and freedom to organize
  • Elections in which voters decide who is to represent them
  • limited terms for elected officials
  • An independent and fair court system, with high regard for individual rights and property.
  • A nonpolitical bureaucracy and defence infrastructure.
  • citizen accessibility to the decision making process.

The defining feature of democracy is freedom.

Factors of evaluating Freedom:

1. Political Rights

  • right to elect a government and should happen on a regular basis
  • power must go to the elected representatives
  • protection of minority: Everybody's interest must be taken into consideration.
  • freedom to join any party.

2. Civil liberties.

  • bounded labor
  • social freedom
  • individual freedom
  • freedom of speech

In terms of political freedom, a country is rated as either

  • Free in that it has a high degree of political rights and civil liberties.
  • Partly free in that it has tolerable degrees of political rights and civil liberties.
  • Not free in that it has low degrees of political rights and civil liberties

Totalitarianism:

A totalitarian system is one in which a single agent, whether an individual , group or party, monopolizes all political power. In a totalitarian system, decision making is restricted to a few individuals.

Authoritarianism:

One person or a small group has absolute control over all others.

Eg. Chile.

Facism :

Extreme form of nationalism that calls for the supremacy of the state.

Eg. Germany under Adolf hitler.

Secular Totalitarianism

Here control is enforced through military power.

Eg: Cuba, China.

Theocratic Totalitarianism

Religious leaders are the political leaders. Eg. Taliban in Afganistan.

Key Drivers or Trend towards Democracy:

  • Breakdown of totalitarian regimes.
  • improved communication technology
  • higher standards of living.

Transition from state controlled economies to market based approaches has also stabilized operating conditions for companies worldwide and supported common rules for international competition.

Factors that powered democratization of the world :

  • Many totalitarian regimes failed to deliver economic progress to the vast majority of their populations. In recourse, citizens challenged the right of the state to govern, perhaps most dramatically highlighted by the fall of the berlin wall and disintegration of the soviet bloc.
  • improved communication technology, largely via internet. The internet by liberating communication constrained govts capability to regulate information flows within and across countries.
  • many people who championed democracy did so in the belief that greater political freedom would lead to economic freedom that in turn, would then lead to higher standards of living and greater wealth accumulation.

Legal Environment

1. Legal System

A legal system is the mechanism for creating , interpreting and enforcing the laws in a specified jurisdiction.

  • legal systems differ from country to country.
  • a country's legal system is the means and methods that it uses to regulate business practices, define how companies conduct business transactions, specify the rights and obligations of those engaged in business transactions and spell out the methods of legal redress to those who believed thay have been wronged.
  • differences in the structure of law influence the attractiveness of a country as an investment site.
  • From MNE's perspective, to what extent is the judiciary, free from political control/influences.
  • MNEs perceive that judiciary in India is relatively free from political interference.

2. Types of Legal Systems

A. Common Law:

A common law system is based on tradition, precedent, custom and usage and interpretation by the courts. Courts assign a preeminent position to existing case law to guide dispute resolution. A common law looks to the rules of the court, custom, judicial reasoning, prior court decisions and principles of equity.

Eg: Canada US, England.

B. Civil Law

A civil law system is based on a ststematic and extensive codification of laws. It judges rather than create law, apply existing legal and procedural codes to resolve disputes.

Eg. German y, France, Japan

C. Theocratic Law

A theocratic law system relies on religious and spiritual principles to define the legal environment.

Eg. Islamic law-Indonesia.

D. Customary Law

A customary legal system follwos the wisdom of daily experience.

E. Mixed Legal System.

A mixed legal system combines elements of other systems.

Eg. majority of countries in Africa and Asia.

Legal Aspects/contingecies affecting MNE strategies.

Strategic concerns are

  • Product safety and liability
  • marketplace behaviour
  • product origin
  • legal jurisdiction
  • arbitration

Successful companies develop strategic plans that describe their business goals and objectives in the effort to create long term value. Many legal issues affect the process of value creation, ranging from where a company makes a product to how it tries to market it. National laws determine permissible practices on pricing, distribution, advertising and promotion of products and services.

Product Safety and Liability

INternational companies often must customize products to comply with local standards if they are to do business in a particular country. Sometiems these legal standards are higher in their home market and sometimes they are just different.

product liability laws are particularly stringent in US, EU and many healthy countries and huge penalties are imposed.

Market Place Behaviour

Eg. Germany does not allow comparative ads.

Certain items are universally not allowed to advertise. Eg Tobacco.

Product Origin

  • National laws shape the flow of products across borders
  • countries devise laws that use the origin of the product to determine the charge to the provider for the right to bring it into the legal market
  • countries measure product origin to determine the proportion of the product that is made in the local market.
  • Local procurement/local vendor development
  • local industries get encouragement
  • local employment and local suppliers.

Local content is important to all nations, and most use this sort of law to push foreign companies to make a greater shape of the product in the local market.

Legal Jurisdiction

  • Each country specifies which law should apply and where litigations should occur.
  • A nation's courts have final decision on jurisdiction
  • Usually a company will push the court in its home country to claim jurisdiction, believing it will then receive more favorable treatment.
  • companies must make sure that contracts include a choice of law clause and a choice of forum clause that specifies which law will govern in the event of a dispute.

companies will resort to arbitration to resolve disputes.

Arbitration:

A smaller number of complaints against governments are heard through the international centre for settlement of investment disputes.

Arbitrators are appointed from both sides.

-Time invloved

-Cost

-Bitterness comes in.

Friday, December 26, 2008

Governmental Influence on Trade

Protectionism
The governmental restrictions and incentives to trade are known as protectionism. Governments want to protect their own industries. Governments also want to promote exports at the same time. After 70s, India changed from Import substitution to export oriented. Governmental measures may limit your ability to sell abroad, such as by prohibiting the export of certain products to certain countries, or by making it difficult for you to buy what you need from foreign suppliers. Governments routinely influence the flow of imports and exports. Also governments directly or indirectly subsidize domestic industries to help them engage foreign producers at home or challenge them abroad.
All nations interfere with international trade to varying degrees. Governments intervene in trade to attain economic, social or political objectives. Governments pursue political rationality when trying to regulate trade. Governmental officials apply trade policies that they reason have the best chance to benefit the nation and its citizen and in some case their personal political longevity.
Role of Government
  • Interest articulation: since different interest groups co-exist, so different interests need to be put forward.
  • Interest aggregation: take all stakeholders view into account
  • Policy making
  • Implementation and adjudication

The Economic Rationales for governmental intervention

1.Unemployment

One of the social objectives of government is to prevent unemployment. The government can do that through import restriction. One difficulty with restricting imports to create jobs is that other countries normally retaliate with their own restrictions. Two factors can ease the effects of retaliation

  • Small trading countries are less important in the retaliation process.
  • Retaliation that decreases employment in a capital-intensive industry may not affect employment as much as the value of the trade loss would imply.

If import restrictions do increase domestic employment, then fellow citizens will have to bear the cost of higher prices or higher taxes. Government officials should compare the costs of higher prices with the costs of unemployment and displaced production that would result from freer trade. In addition, they must consider the costs of policies to ease the plight of displaced employees, such as for unemployment benefits or retraining. The employment issue can slow trade liberalization because displaced workers are often the ones who are least able to find alternative work at a comparable salary. So persistent unemployment pushes many groups to call for protectionism. However, evidence suggests that efforts to reduce unemployment through import restrictions are usually ineffective. Unemployment, in and of itself, is better dealt with through fiscal and monetary policies.

2.Infant industry protection

In 1792, Alexander Hamilton presented infant industry argument. This theory holds that a government should shield an emerging industry from foreign competition by guaranteeing it a large share of the domestic market until it is able to compete on its own. Government protects these industries through subsidies. The govt protects infant industries where the country has either comparative or competitive advantage. So the companies of those industries will become major exporters. They become strong in the home market also. Govt needs to protect its potential stars. The infant industry argument presumes that the initial output costs for a small scale industry in given country may be so high as to make its output non competitive in world markets. Once the infant industry becomes globally competitive, the government can then recoup the costs of trade protection through benefits like higher domestic employment, lower social costs and higher tax revenues.
It is reasonable to expect production costs to decrease over time, but they may never fall enough to create internationally competitive products. So there are two risks for protecting an infant industry.

  • Governments must identify those industries that have a high probability of success.
  • Even if policy makers can determine those infant industries likely to succeed, it does not necessarily follow that companies in those industries should receive governmental assistance.

Infant industry protection requires some segment of the economy to incur the higher cost of inefficient local production. Typically either consumers or tax payers take the burden. Ultimately the validity of the infant industry argument rests on the expectation that the future benefits of an internationally competitive industry will exceed the costs of the associated protectionism.

3. Promote Industrialization

Countries with a large manufacturing base generally have higher per capita incomes than those that do not. Hence many emerging economies try to develop an industrial base by largely regulating imports from foreign producers using trade protection to spur local industrialization.
The following are the effects of promoting industrialization

  • Use of surplus workers.
  • Promoting investment inflows.
  • Diversification
  • Greater growth for manufactured products
  • Import substitution versus export promotion
  • Nation building

Use of surplus workers

Surplus workers can more easily increase manufacturing output than agricultural output. Since agricultural output per person is low, so many people can migrate from agricultural sectors to industrial sectors and in turn increase industrial output. The industrialization argument presumes that the unregulated importation of lower priced products prevents the development of a domestic industry. However the industrialization rationale asserts that the industrial output will increase, even if the prices are not globally competitive, because local consumers must buy local goods from local producers.

Promoting investment inflows

Inflows of foreign investment in the industrial area promote sustainable growth. Import restrictions, applied to spur industrialization, may also increase foreign direct investment. Foreign investment inflows may also add to local employment, which is attractive to policymakers.

Diversification

Prices and sales of agricultural products and raw materials fluctuate very much, which is a detriment to economies that depend on few of them. Price variations due to uncontrollable factors, such as weather affecting supply or business cycles abroad affecting demand, can wreak havoc on economies that depend on the export of primary products. A greater dependence on manufacturing does not either guarantee diversification of export earnings.

Greater growth of manufactured products

Markets for industrial products grow faster than markets for agricultural products. The terms of trade are the quantity of imports that a given quantity of a country’s exports can buy. The prices of raw materials and agricultural commodities do not rise as fast as the prices of finished products. Hence, overtime it takes more low priced primary products to buy the same amount of high priced manufactured goods. So, emerging nations that depend on primary products have become increasingly poorer relative to industrial countries.

Import substitution versus export promotion

Traditionally emerging economies promoted industrialization by restricting imports in order to boost local production for local consumption. Some countries have achieved rapid economic growth by promoting the development of industries that export their output. This approach is known as export led development. Industrialization may result initially in import substitution, yet export development of the same products may be feasible later.

Nation Building

Industrial activity helps the nation building process. The performance of free markets suggests a strong relationship between industrialization and aspects of the nation building process. Industrialization helps countries to build infrastructure, advance rural development, enhance rural proples’ social life and boost the skills of the workforce.

4. Increasing country’s economic power relative to other countries

Countries monitor their absolute economic welfare as well as track how their performance compares to other countries. Governments impose trade restrictions to improve their relative trade positions. They also try to charge higher export and lower import prices. To remain competitive and perform better economically, the countries adopt the following five methods.

  • Improving Balance of payments (BOP) through Balance of Trade
  • Restrictions as a Negotiating tool
  • Price control on exports
  • Fair access/Reciprocity
  • Optimal tariff theory

Improving Balance of payments through BOT

Governments can improve BOP by improving their balance of trade. If BOP difficulties arise and persist, a government may restrict imports or encourage exports to balance its trade account. One way to do this is to devalue the currency of the country, which makes all the products cheaper in relation to foreign products.

Restrictions as a Negotiating tool

The imposition of import restriction may be used as a means to persuade other countries to lower their import barriers. To successfully use restriction as a bargaining tool required careful consideration of what products to target. Basically the restrictions need to be believable and important to the influential parties in the other country. Believable implies that there are either alternative sources to buy the same product or that consumers are willing to do without it.

Price control on exports

Countries sometimes withhold goods from international markets in an effort to raise prices abroad. This policy may also encourage other countries to develop technology that will provide either substitute products or different ways of producing the same product. A country may limit exports of a product that is in short supply worldwide in order to favour domestic consumers. Companies sometimes export below cost or below their home country price, a practice called dumping. Companies do dumping to build a market abroad.

Fair access/Reciprocity

Companies and industries often argue that they are entitled to the same access to foreign markets as foreign industries and companies have to their markets. Economic theory supports this idea, reasoning that producers operating in industries where increased production leads to steep cost decreases, but which lack equal access to a competitor’s market will struggle to gain enough sales to be cost competitive.

Optimal tariff theory

This theory states that a foreign producer will lower its prices if the importing country places a tax on its products. If this occurs, benefits shift to the importing country because the foreign producer lowers its profits on the export sales.

Noneconomic rationales for government intervention

Governments are involved in the following noneconomic rationales.

  • Maintenance of essential industries
  • Prevention of shipment to unfriendly countries
  • Maintenance or extension of spheres of influence
  • Protecting activities that help preserve the national identity

Maintenance of essential industries

The essential industries include defence, education. Some of these industries need to be controlled through government. Governments apply trade restriction to protect essential domestic industries during peacetime so that a country is not dependent on foreign sources of supply during war. This is called the essential industry argument. Because of the high cost of protecting an inefficient industry or a higher cost domestic substitute, the essential industry argument should not be accepted without a careful evaluation of costs, real needs and alternatives. Once an industry receives protection, it is difficult to remove the protection.

Prevention of shipment to unfriendly countries

Here the government’s is not to supply goods to rival countries. Countries achieve these political goals using economic means i.e. trade controls. Countries also start blacklisting other countries who supply to their rival countries. Countries concerned about security often use national defence arguments to prevent the export, even to friendly countries, of strategic goods that might fall into the hands of potential enemies or that might be in short supply domestically. Export constraints may be valid if the exporting country assumes there will be no retaliation that prevents it from securing even more essential goods from the potential importing country. Trade controls on nondefense goods also may be used as a weapon of foreign policy to try to prevent another country from meeting its political objectives.

Maintenance or extension of spheres of influence

Governments give aid and credits to, and encourage imports from countries that join a political alliance or vote a preferred way within international bodies. It is about exporting to another country and in turn generating employment and BOP. A country’s trade restrictions may coerce governments to follow certain political actions or punish companies whose governments do not.

Protecting activities that help preserve the national identity

Govt's role is not only to govern the country but also to protect the country and put it together. For this the country requires national identity and a sense of belongingness. Countries are held together partially through a unifying sense of identity that sets their citizens apart from those in other nations. To sustain this collective identity, countries limit foreign products and services in certain sectors.

Instruments of Trade Control

The following are some of the instruments of trade control

  1. Tariffs
  2. Subsidies
  3. Tied Aid to countries
  4. Custom valuation
  5. Consular fees
  6. Quotas
  7. “Buy Local” Legislation
  8. Standards and Labels
  9. Specific permission requirements
  10. Administrative delays
  11. Reciprocal Requirements
  12. Restrictions on services

1. Tariffs

A tariff (duty) is the most common type of trade control and is a tax that governments levy on a good shipped internationally. Governments charge a tariff when a good crosses its official boundary. Trade blocks also charge common tariff rates to non member countries.

  • Export Tariff: Tariffs collected by the exporting country are called an export tariff. Export tariffs are imposed because these items going out would affect local industries. Export tariffs put essential items useful locally.
  • Transit Tariff: Tariffs collected by a country through which the goods have passed are called a transit tariff.
  • Import Tariff: Tariffs collected by an importing country are called import tariff. Import tariffs are imposed to make local production more attractive and competitive.

Import tariffs raise the price of imported goods, thereby giving domestically produced goods a relative price advantage. Tariffs also serve as a source of governmental revenue. Although, revenue tariffs are most commonly collected on imports, many countries that export raw materials charge export tariffs. Tariffs are basically three types namely specific duty, ad valorem duty and compound duty.

  • When the government assess a tariff on a per unit basis, then it is called specific duty.
  • When the government assesses a tariff as a percentage of the value of the item, then it is called ad valorem duty.
  • When the government assesses a tariff based on both specific and ad valorem duty, then it is called compound duty.

2. Subsidies

Govt pays in various ways to local players in order to make them competitive globally and in turn expect them to become exporters. Governments sometimes also provide other types of assistance like business development services (market information, trade expositions and foreign contacts) to make it cheaper or more profitable to sell overseas. However trade frictions result from disagreement on the definition of a subsidy. Subsidies make local players compete domestically as well as in foreign markets. Ultimately public pays for these subsidies in terms of taxes subsidizing less efficient/less competitive industries.

3. Tied Aid to countries

When governments give aid and loans to other countries with precondition that the recipient is required to spend the funds in the donor country, then it is known as tied aid or tied loan. Tied aid helps win large contracts for infrastructure, such as telecommunications, electric power projects etc. Tied aid can slow the development of local suppliers in developing countries and shield suppliers in the donor countries from competition.

4. Custom valuation

While imposing tariffs on exports or imports, custom officials first use the declared invoice price. If officials doubt the authenticity, then they impose tariff on the basis of the value of identical goods. If not possible, then officials may compute a value based on final sales value or on reasonable cost. Sometimes officials use their discretionary power to assess the value too high, thereby preventing the importation of foreign made products.

5. Consular Fees

Some countries require consular fees. It is a very high amount and delays the proceedings. It makes the import to the country less attractive.

6. Quotas

The quota is the most common type of quantitative import or export restriction. BY implementing quotas the countries increase BOP and BOT by decreasing imports and increasing exports. An import quota prohibits or limits the quantity of a product that can be imported in a given year. Quotas usually increase the consumer price because there is little incentive to use price competition to increase sales. Tariffs generate revenue for the government. However quotas generate revenues for the companies that are able to obtain and sell the intentionally limited supply.
There are different variations of quotas.
Voluntary export restraint (VER)

Here the government of country A asks the government of country B to reduce its companies’ exports to country A voluntarily. Here either country B volunteers to reduce its exports or country A may impose tougher trade regulations.
Advantages of VER

  • A VER is much easier to switch off than an import quota.
  • The appearance of “voluntary” choice by a country, does not damage the political relations between those countries as much as an import quota does.

Export Quotas
A country may establish export quotas to assure domestic consumers of a sufficient supply of goods at a low price to attempt to raise export prices by restricting supply in foreign markets. The typical goal of an export quota is to raise prices to importing countries.
Embargo
It is a specific type of quota that prohibits all forms of trade between the countries. Countries or group of countries may place embargoes on either imports or exports, on whole categories of products or specific products with specific countries. Governments impose embargoes in the effort to use economic means to achieve political goals.

7. “Buy Local” Legislation

Sometimes governments specify a domestic content restriction-that is , a certain percentage of the product must be of local origin. Govt has the option of buying locally as well as internationally. So by buying locally, the govt gives protection to the local players. Sometimes they favour domestic producers through price mechanisms. Many nations prescribe a minimum percentage of domestic content that a given product must have for it to be sold legally in their country. By doing this the local market develops. Technology up gradation happens in the local market. Exports also happen on the component parts.

8. Standards and Labels

Countries devise classification, labelling and testing standards to allow the sale of domestic products but obstruct that of foreign made ones. In case of labels, the companies have to indicate on a product where it is made. Labels provide information to consumers who may prefer to buy products from certain nations. The purpose of standards is to protect the safety or health of the domestic population. However some foreign companies argue that standards are just another means to protect domestic producers.

9. Specific permission requirements

Some countries require that potential importers or exporters secure permission from governmental authorities before conducting trade transactions. This requirement is known as import license. This procedure can restrict imports or exports directly by denying permission or indirectly because of the cost, time and uncertainty involved in the process. A foreign exchange control is a similar type of control.

10. Administrative delays

International administrative delays create uncertainty and raise the cost of carrying inventory. Competitive pressure, however, moves countries to improve their administrative systems.

11. Reciprocal Requirements

Governments sometimes require that exporters take merchandise in lieu of money or they promise to buy merchandise or services, in place of cash payment, in the country to which they export. These sorts of barter transactions are called countertrade or offsets. More frequently, however, reciprocal requirements are made between countries with ample access to foreign currency that want to secure jobs or technology as part of the transaction.

12. Restrictions on services

Services are the fastest growing sector in international trade. Countries restrict trade in services for three reasons
Essentiality

Countries sometimes prohibit private companies, foreign or domestic, in some sectors because they feel the services should not be sold for profit. In other cases they set price controls for private competitors or subsidize government owned service organizations, creating disincentives for foreign private participation. Mail, education, hospital, media are often not for profit sectors.
Standards

Governments limit foreign entry into many service professions to ensure practice by qualified personnel.
Immigration

Governmental regulations often require that an organization, domestic or foreign, search extensively for qualified personnel locally before it can even apply for work permits for personnel it would like to bring in from abroad. Even if no one is available, hiring a foreigner is still difficult.

International Trade and Factor Mobility Theory





Utility of International Trade Theories for countries and companies


Trade theory in India comes from the ministry of commerce. It is based on the factors basically framed by WTO like who should be your trading partners, specifying trade blocks etc. Like India, other countries wrestle with the questions of what, how much and with whom their country should import and export. The decisions taken by countries in this matter greatly affect their business because they affect which countries can produce given products more efficiently and whether countries will permit imports to compete against their own domestically produced goods and services.

Trade theories tell how or whether governments should intervene directly to affect their countries’ trade with other countries. Trade theories tell countries about what products should be exported and imported or what should be the total foreign trade as a percentage of the GDP.Once countries make decisions about what, how much and with whom to trade, officials enact trade policies to achieve the desired results. There are two aspects of trade policies.




  • Policy book which specifies the policies


  • Handbook of proceedings which specifies as an exporter or importer what should be your duties.

Companies need to understand trade theories so that they can find where to locate the production/distribution unit. the second reason being sourcing i.e. where to import from and where to export. These different trade theories provide insights about favourable locales as well as potentially successful export products. The theories also increase understanding about government trade policies and predict how those policies might affect companies’ competitiveness.

Prescriptive Theory

There are two prescriptive theories namely Mercantilism and Neomercantilism

Mercantilism

It is a trade theory which formed the foundation of economic thought from about 1500 to 1800. It says all theories are related to countries not companies. According to this theory a country should export more than it imports and if successful, receive gold from countries that run deficits. So employment will be there and excess production will occur in the country. In this process the country will become stronger and popular.
To export more than import, governments imposed restriction on most imports and they subsidized production of many products that could otherwise not complete in domestic or export markets. As the influence of the mercantilist philosophy weakened after 1800, the governments of colonial powers seldom aimed directly to limit the development of the industrial capabilities within their colonies.
A favourable balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, where as an unfavourable balance of trade indicates the opposite. However it is not necessarily beneficial to run a trade surplus or disadvantageous to run a trade deficit. A country that is running a surplus for the time being, imports goods and services of less value than those it is exporting. In mercantilist period the difference in trade was made up by a transfer of gold, but today it is made up by holding the deficit country’s currency or investments denominated in that currency.

Neomercantilism

It is an extension of Merck theory. According to this theory the countries try to run a favourable balance of trade i.e. export more than they import. The objective is not purely economical, rather social and political. By exporting they acquire political good will of the countries to whom they export. Developed countries do this to developing countries. In addition by doing excessive production and export, they generate employment in the home country and increase the sphere of influence among the host countries.

Theories of Specialization

The theory of specialization states that nations should neither artificially limit imports nor promote exports. There are three theories of specialization.




  • Theory of absolute advantage.

  • Comparative advantage.

  • Factor proportions theory.

Theory of absolute advantage
In 1776 Adam smith said the wealth of the country depend on its goods and services. He first talked about free trade. According to him some countries can produce certain goods more efficiently (competitively) because of their natural advantage (natural resources). These countries should produce these goods and export it to countries having less or no advantage of these goods. On the contrary, the goods that could not be produced competitively should be obtained from other countries that have competitive advantage over the same. It will lead to the optimal utilisation of resources throughout the world. By doing this countries will have large production units for certain products. Based on this theory, he questioned why the citizens of any country should have to buy domestically produced goods when they could buy these goods more cheaply abroad.
Through specialization, countries could increase their efficiency because of three reasons.




  • Labor could become more skilled by repeating the same tasks.

  • Labor would not loose time in switching from the production of one kind of product to another.

  • Long production runs would provide incentives for the development of more effective working methods

A country can have either natural advantage or acquired advantage.
Natural advantage: A country may have a natural advantage in producing a product because of climatic conditions, access to certain natural resources, or availability of certain labor forces. No country is sufficiently rich in natural resources to be independent of the rest of the world. So most countries import ores, metals and fuels from other countries.
Acquired Advantage: Countries that produce manufactured goods and services competitively have an acquired advantage, usually either in product or process technology. An advantage of product technology is that it enables a country to produce a unique product or one that is easily distinguished from those of competitors. An advantage in process technology is a country’s ability to produce a homogeneous product (one not easily distinguished from that of competitors) efficiently.

Theory of comparative advantage

In 1817, David Ricardo developed the theory of comparative advantage. This theory says that global efficiency gains may still result from trade if a country specializes in those products that it can produce more efficiently than other products—regardless of whether other countries can produce those same products even more efficiently. So a country will gain if it concentrates its resources on producing the commodities it can produce most efficiently. It will then trade some of those commodities for those commodities it has relinquished. This theory is accepted by most economists and is influential in promoting policies for free trade.

Assumptions and Limitations of Theories of Specialization

Full employment: The specialization theories assume that resources are fully employed. However when countries have many unemployed or unused resources, they may seek to restrict imports to employ or use idle resources.
Economic Efficiency Objective: Countries also often pursue objectives other than output efficiency. They may avoid overspecialization because of the vulnerability created by changes in technology and by price fluctuations.
Division of Gains: Although specialization brings potential benefits to all countries that trade, the earlier discussion did not indicate how countries will divide increased output.
Two Countries, Two Commodities: the theory assumes a simple world composed of only two countries and two commodities.
Transportation costs: If transportation costs more than what is saved through specialization, then the advantages of trade are negated.
Statics and Dynamics: The theories view the advantages statically. However the relative conditions that give countries advantages or disadvantages in the production of given products are dynamic.
Services: The theories of absolute and comparative advantage deal with commodities rather than services. However an increasing portion of world trade is in services.
Mobility: The theory assumes that resources can move domestically from the production of one good to another and at no cost. But this assumption is not completely valid.

Factor Proportions Theory

Heckscher and ohlin developed factor proportions theory. This theory is based on countries’ production factors like land, labor and capital. This theory says that differences in countries’ endowments of labor compared to their endowments of land or capital explained the differences in the cost of production of factors. If labor were abundant in comparison to land and capital, then labor cost would be low. These relative factor costs lead countries to excel in the production and export of products that used their abundant production factors. In countries where there is little capital available for investment per worker is low, managers might expect to find cheap labor rates and export competitiveness in products that require large amounts of labor relative to capital. However, because the factor-proportions theory assumes production factors to be homogeneous, tests to substantiate the theory have been mixed. Labor skills in fact vary within and among countries because people have different training and education.

International Product Life Cycle

The international product life cycle theory of trade states that the location of production of certain kinds of products shifts as they go through their life cycles, which consist of four stages namely introduction, growth, maturity and decline.

Introductory phase

Once a company has created a new product, theoretically it can manufacture that product anywhere in the world. In practice, however, the early production generally occurs in domestic location so that the company can obtain rapid market feedback as well as save on transport costs. In this stage, the production process is more labor intensive because the product is not yet standardized and its production process must permit rapid changes in product characteristics as market feedback dictates.Although the early production is most apt to occur in high income countries, which have high labor rates, this labor tends to be highly educated and skilled so that it is adept and efficient when production is not yet standardized. Even if production costs are high because of expensive labor, companies can often pass costs onto consumers who are unwilling to wait for possible price reductions later.
Growth Phase

In this phase, as the sales of new product grow, competitors enter the market and demand grows substantially in foreign markets, particularly in other high income countries. Because sales are growing rapidly at home and abroad, there are incentives for companies to develop process technology. However product technology may not yet be well developed because of the number of product variations introduced by competitors that are also trying to gain market share. So the production process may still be labor intensive during this stage, although it is becoming less so.
Maturity phase

In this stage the overall worldwide demand begins to level off, although it may be growing in some countries and declining in some countries. There is often a shakeout of products such that product models become highly standardized, making cost an important competitive weapon. Longer production runs become possible for foreign plants, which in turn reduce per unit cost, thus creating more demand in emerging economies. Because markets and technologies are widespread, the innovating country no longer commands a production advantage. Producers have incentives to shift production to emerging economies where they can employ unskilled, inexpensive labor efficiently for standardized production.
Decline Phase

In this phase the markets in high income countries decline more rapidly than those in low-income economies as affluent customers demand ever newer products. By this time, market and cost factors have dictated that almost all production is in emerging economies, which export to the declining or small niche markets in high income countries.

Theory of Country size

The theory of country size holds that large countries usually depend less on trade than small countries. Countries with large land areas are apt to have varied climates and an assortment of natural resources, making them more self sufficient than smaller countries. Further transport costs in trade affect large and small countries differently. Among countries that border each other, the smaller country tends to depend more on trade than the larger country because of transportation costs. The distances for neighbouring countries for small countries are less and hence less transportation cost.

Country similarity

Similar countries engage in trade among themselves because




  • Requirements are similar

  • Similar income levels, needs

  • Ease and comfort of operations

Porter’s diamond theory

For diagram please refer at the top of this post.



According to porter’s diamond theory, companies’ development of internationally competitive products and for being supremacy depends on four domestic factors namely


  • Demand conditions

  • Factor conditions

  • Related and supporting industries

  • Firm strategy, structure and rivalry

Demand conditions are the first condition in the theory. Companies come up with new products only when they observe a need or demand for the same in the market. Companies then start up production near the observed market. The demand conditions look for the quality of people i.e. how demanding the customers are. If the customers are more demanding, then industry players try to outperform each other and this leads to more competition and thus better products. The second condition is the Factor conditions. Here the companies look for the natural advantage available in the domestic market in terms of skilled labor, capital, technology and equipment. If certain factor conditions are not available then the companies refer the host country diamond. It is possible due to international trade. The third condition is the existence of related and supporting industries. These industries are required in the country for the components of the main product. The ability of the companies to develop and sustain a competitive advantage requires favourable circumstances for the fourth condition i.e. firm strategy, structure and rivalry. Rivalry brings out the best in the companies. All earlier theories looked at comparative advantage while porter’s diamond focuses on competitive advantage.
Implications of Porter’s diamond


For country government



  • Government should focus on “specialized factor conditions” eg-education for growth of IT.

  • Government should not allow companies to have strategic alliance between companies of the same country because it will reduce competition. If alliance is to take place, then it has to take place with foreign players.

  • Governments should be open for foreign country market through negotiation with other countries.

For Companies



  • Select and tap the host country diamond.

  • Utilize the specialized factor conditions and enhance/compliment them with their own capabilities.

  • Focus on innovation i.e. committed R&D

Limitations of porter’s diamond



  • Resources may be channelled to sectors where there is comparative advantage based industries and in turn those industries where innovation is due, may not get resources.

  • What is comparative advantage today may not be there tomorrow due to the ongoing globalization.

  • The sectors are competitive across the world and are not restricted to a single country.

  • The existence of four favourable conditions does not guarantee that an industry will develop in a given locale. At the same time the absence of any of the four conditions from the diamond domestically may not inhibit companies and industries from becoming globally competitive.

  • If related and supporting industries are not available locally, materials and components are now more easily brought in from abroad due to advancement in transportation and relaxation of import restrictions.

  • Companies react not only to domestic rivals but also to foreign based rivals with whom they compete at home and abroad.

Factor Mobility


Factor conditions change in both quality and quantity. The relative capabilities of countries also change. The changes are important in understanding and predicting changes in export production and import market locations. At the same time the mobility of capital, technology and people affect trade and relative competitive positions.


Why production factors move


Capital, especially short term capital, is the most internationally mobile production factor. Companies and private individuals primarily transfer capital because of differences in expected return. Short term capital is more mobile than long term capital because there is more likely to be an active market through which investors can quickly buy foreign holdings and sell them if they want to transfer capital back home or to another country. However companies invest in long-term abroad to tap markets and lower operating costs. Another reason for capital mobility is because governments give foreign aid and loans. Non profit organizations donate money abroad to relieve worrisome economic and social conditions. Individuals remit funds to help their families and friends in foreign countries.


People are also internationally mobile. People move from the area of abundance to area of scarcity. People who travel to another country as tourists, students and retirees do not constitute labor mobility unless they work there. About 2 percent of the world’s population has migrated to another country. People whether professionals or unskilled workers, largely work in another country for economic reasons. People also move for political reasons also like persecution or war dangers. People move for short term when they are allocated in turnkey onsite projects, or overseas positions. However people move for long term through migration and take citizenship.


Effects of factor movements



  • Immigrants bring human capital with them, thus adding to the base of skills that enabled countries to be newly competitive in an array of products they might otherwise have imported.

  • Countries receive foreign capital to develop infrastructure and natural resources, which further altered their competitive structures and international trade.

  • Countries lose potentially productive resources when educated people leave, a situation known as a brain drain, but they may gain from the foreign earnings on those factors.

Relationship of trade and Factor mobility


Free trade when coupled with freedom of factor mobility internationally will usually result in the most efficient allocation of resources.


Substitution


When the factor proportions vary widely among countries, pressures exist for the most abundant factors to move to countries with greater scarcity- where they can command a better return. If finished goods and production factors were both free to move internationally, the comparative costs of transferring goods and factors would determine the location of production. However there are restrictions on factor movements that make them only partially mobile internationally. The inability to gain sufficient access to foreign production factors may stimulate efficient methods of substitution, such as development of alternatives for traditional production methods.
Complementarity


Trade and investments are complementary. When companies invest abroad, the investments often stimulate exports from their home countries. Any investment in terms of trade made by a foreign country leads to import of capital equipment, import of components, local players also reduce cost, improve technology, import goods and may also export in the long run. About a third of world trade (exports) is among controlled entities such as from parent to subsidiary, subsidiary to parent, subsidiary to subsidiary of the same company. Many of the exports would not occur if overseas investments did not exist. Another reason might be domestic operating units may export materials and components to their foreign facilities for use in a finished product.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Economic Environment of a Country

The following are some of the key macro economic parameters.


  1. GDP/GNI
  2. PPP
  3. Population and Demographics
  4. Exports/Imports (Trade Gap)
  5. FDI
  6. FPI
  7. ForEx Reserves
  8. Inflation
  9. Interest Rate
  10. Exchange Rate
  11. Balance of Payment (BOP)
  12. Human Development Index (HDI)
  13. Unemployment
  14. Income Distribution and Poverty
  15. Debt

1. GDP


GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced within a nation’s borders over one year, no matter whether domestic or foreign owned companies make the product. For country’s attractiveness GDP is a more important factor. In addition to the GDP, the sectoral break up and growth rate also needs to be known for a country. The three major sectors of India are Agriculture, manufacturing and services. Services sector is the major sector. If we take the growth rate, then developed countries have a stable growth rate but not growing rapidly where as the developing countries are growing at a rapid rate although their economic base is smaller. From an organization point of view, the growth rate of the relevant market’s sector needs to be considered. Also the growth rate of the sector from where the resources are obtained is to be considered. So compared to absolute growth rate, sectoral break up is more important.


GDP Per Capita : Managers divide the GDP to the number of people who live in a country. This ratio leads to a per capita estimator that measures the relative performance of a country’s economy. It signifies the average income level of the country. It determines which kinds of products will be bought by the people of that country. It is a good indicator for consumer goods where as for industrial goods sectoral break up is a good indicator.


GNI : Gross National income is the value of all goods and services produced by a country during a one year period. The absolute size of GNI reveals a lot about the market opportunity in a country.


2. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)


The Purchasing power parity is the number of units of a country’s currency required to buy the same amounts of goods and services in the domestic market that one unit of income would buy in the other country. It is useful to compare the purchasing power of different countries. The most common PPP exchange rate comes from comparing a basket of goods and services in a country with an equivalent basket in the United States.


3. Population and Demographics


India and China are countries with 1 billion plus population where as the average population of a country is 10 million. There are several parameters like age, gender, level of education, literacy, urban/rural distribution.
Age : Population of the working class workforce, and consumer groups based on age.
Gender : Certain professions are restricted to gents only. (Eg: Saudi Arabia)
Education: The reach of advertisements will be determined by the literacy and education level of the country.
Urban/Rural Population: the nature of market is different whether it is urban populated or rural populated.


4. Exports/Imports (Trade Gap)


The companies opt for exports when the cost of labor in home country is low, transportation costs and tariff barriers are also low. A country can export goods when it has comparative advantage as compared to the host country. When a country is in disadvantage regarding some specific goods and services, it opts for imports.
Trade gap: The difference between the exports and imports of a country is known as trade gap. If exports is greater than imports then the country is said to have trade surplus where as if the imports are greater than exports then the country is said to have trade deficit.


5. FDI


companies adopt FDI route in order to get a controlling stake in a host country for a long term purpose. It might not be only for manufacturing. It can also be a part of the overall supply chain. FDI helps the home country to a great extent in terms of controlling other markets.


Inward FDI : FDI, what comes to home country is known as inward FDI. The inward FDI for India is 15 Billion dollars. Inward FDI indicates, how the country is being perceived by other countries and MNEs. The Inward FDI tells about the competitive sectors of the country.
Outward FDI : FDI what goes out of home country is known as outward FDI. Outward FDI indicates that, the country has certain strengths of world class level (technology, skills) in certain sectors for which they are venturing outside. It indicates the economic development of the host country. Countries go for outward FDI, when there is market opportunity or staying closer to the customer as required by the customer. For outward FDI, the country should have economic strength as well as domain knowledge and capabilities.


6. FPI


Foreign portfolio investments are meant for only short term purpose. Here the main motive is to get a good return at a moderate risk with high liquidity. Countries can’t get any controlling stake by investing through FPI.


7. ForEx Reserves


It indicates the economic health and sustainability of the country. ForEx reserves are required for payment of interests, debts for imports. The forEx reserve of a country should be high.


8. Inflation


Inflation is the pervasive and sustained rise in the aggregate level of prices measured by an index of the cost of various goods and services. Inflation results when aggregate demand grows faster than aggregate supply. From MNE’s perspective it determines the pricing and long term strategy. It is a large measure of MNE’s confidence. A moderate rate of inflation brings stability which is attractive to the MNEs. It is a measure of the government’s success in the economy. Inflation also puts great pressure on governments to control it. Often governments try to reduce inflation by raising interest rates and imposing protectionist trade policies and currency controls.


9. Interest Rate


Interest rate is the indicator of cost of raising capital. Ideally interest rates should be low and stable. Countries try to have interest rates which is close to LIBOR (London Inter Bank Offer Rate). For a country, having stability in inflation, interest rate and exchange rate are the factors which attract other companies to invest in the country. The stability in these rates helps in predicting the uncertainty in the business. Both interest rates and inflation move in the same direction. When inflation goes up, the interest rates also go up to adjust the return for the lender.


10. Exchange Rate


Exchange rates between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth as compared to other. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets of the world. The daily transactions in foreign exchange market is about $3.2 trillion dollars. When inflation is high, export competitiveness go down and exchange rates also go down.


11. Balance of Payment (BOP)


It records a country’s international transactions that take place between companies, governments or individuals. In doing so the BOP reports the total of all the money that comes into a country from abroad less all the money going out of the country to any other country during the same period. BOP is also officially known as the statement of International transactions. BOP has two main accounts namely current account and capital account.
Current Account: It tracks all trade activity in merchandise. The components of Current account are
a. Value of exports and imports of physical goods.
b. Receipts and payments for services and intangible goods
c. Private transfers such as money sent home by expatriate workers
d. Official transfers.
Capital Account : It tracks both loans given to foreigners and loans received by citizens. The components of capital account are
a. Long term capital flows.
b. Short term capital flows.
Current accounts indicate trade balance, dividends, interests for investments, unilateral transfers where as Capital accounts indicate FII, Investments, loans, repayments, real estate.
BOP is an important measure for long term stability of a country. The BOP should be moderate.


12. Human Development Index (HDI)


HDI measures the average achievements in a country on three dimensions.
Longevity : as measured by life expectancy at birth
Knowledge : as measured by the adult literacy rate and the combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio.
Standard of living : as measured by GNI per capita expressed in PPP for US dollars.
United Nations refined the HDI by adding two more dimensions i.e.
Gender : a gender related development index that adjusts for gender inequalities.
Poverty : a measure of poverty to adjust for human deprivations and the denial of choices and opportunities.
HDI aims to capture long-term progress in human development rather than short term changes. HDI is scaled in between 0 and 1. Countries scoring less than 0.5 are having low HDI. From 0.5 to 0.8 are having moderate and from 0.8 to 1 have high HDI.HDI measures both economic and social parameters to estimate its current and future economic activity. It indicates a country’s long term potential.


13. Unemployment


If the country has high level of unemployment, then it triggers political risk. The proportion of unemployed workers in a country shows how well a nation’s human resources are used and serves as a measure of economic activity.Managers access the situation of a country by checking the misery Index. Misery Index is the sum of country’s inflation and unemployment rates. The higher the misery, the lower are the chances that foreign companies will invest in the country.


14. Income distribution and Poverty


The top 20% of the world population account for the 86% of the income where as the bottom 20% account for only 1%. In India 80 percent of the population earn less than $2 a day and 40 percent of the population earn $1 a day. Therefore managers look for the economic potential of a country by adjusting their analyses to reflect the actual distribution of income. The skewness of the income distribution is very high in India as well as Asian countries. If income distribution is unequal, then it will lead to poverty. So only a part of the population will be relevant. Poverty impacts the economic environment and analyses to a huge extent. International companies facing such situations must deal with their implications to virtually every feature of the economic environment. In countries with high poverty levels customary market systems may not exist, national infrastructure may not work, criminal behaviours may be pervasive. So companies have to deal with all such situations.


15. Debt


It is the sum total of government’s financial obligations. It measure the state’s borrowing from its population, foreign organization, foreign governments and international institutions. The larger the total debt, the more unstable the country’s economy becomes.A country’s debt has two parts : Internal and External debt.
Internal Debt : Internal debt results when the government spends more than it collects in revenues. Internal deficit occurs due to imperfect taxing system, state owned enterprises run deficits.
External Debt: External debt results when a government borrows money from foreign lenders. Foreign investors monitor debt levels to gauge debt pressures on the government to revise its economic policies.

Types of Economic Systems

An economic system is the set of structures and processes that guides the allocation of resources and shapes the conduct of business activities. On one end there is capitalism and on the other hand there is communism. Capitalism is a free market system built on private ownership and control. Communism is a centrally planned system built on state ownership of all economic factors of production and control of economic activity. So basically there are three types of economic systems.

  • Market Economy
  • Command Economy
  • Mixed Economy

Market Economy

It is basically a capitalist economy. In market economy individuals, rather than government, make the majority of economic decisions. The theoretical principles that define free-market economies are based on the principle of laissez-faire (non-intervention by government in economic matters). This principle is credited to Adam Smith and his proposition that a market economy has two general features

  • Producers efficiently make products that consumers want in a profit making motive.
  • Consumers determine the relationships among price, quantity, supply and demand so that capital and labor are allocated productively.

So the consumer sovereignty, where by consumers influence the allocation of resources through their demand of products is the essence of market economy. A market is very less dependent upon government rules and restrictions. However for some public goods like traffic systems or national defence, government intervenes to enforce contracts, property rights to ensure fair and free competition and to regulate certain economic activities and provide general security.
Eg: Hong Kong, Great Britain, Canada, United States are major market economies.

Command Economy

Also known as centrally planned economy. It is the exact opposite of market economy. Here the government owns and controls all resources. Here the government decides the type, quantity, price, production and distribution of goods. In a centrally planned economy, the government owns the means of production i.e. land, farms, factories, banks, stores and are managed by the employees of the state. Here the price of the goods and services usually remains constant however the quality deteriorates over a time period because

  • Whatever product is made is usually in short supply.
  • Consumers typically have few to no other choices.
  • There is not much incentive for companies to innovate and little profits to invest.

Command economies are traditionally found in communist countries. In communist countries, the state economic planners give highest priority to industrial investments and military spending where as consumer goods and food products are given little or no priority. However centrally planned economies sometimes allowed free market forces to play in the informal gray markets where scarce consumer goods are exchanged at market determined rates. Command economies can perform well in terms of growth rates for short periods of time by mobilizing unemployed or underemployed resources to generate growth. However the products produced are not competitive with global standards, often achieved marginal rates of efficiency while making acceptable products. Currently very fewer countries are practicing command economies like North Korea and Cuba. Many Countries are transiting from command economies to market economies, thereby creating business opportunities.

Mixed Economy

Most of the economies are neither purely market nor command economies. Most of them fall in the midway of the capitalism-communism spectrum. In a mixed economy the public sector, private sector and private sector co-exist simultaneously. A mixed economy is a system where economic decisions are largely market driven and ownership is largely private, but the government intervenes in many private economic decisions. Here the government owns key factors of production, yet consumers and private producers still influence price and quantity.
The proponents of mixed economies concede that an economic system should aspire to achieve the efficiencies endemic to free markets. But an economic system must also protect the society from the excesses of individualism and greed and ideally apply policies needed to achieve low employment, low poverty, steady economic growth and an equitable distribution of wealth.

Operationally government intervention in the economy takes various forms.

  • Central, regional, local governments may actually own some means of production.
  • The government can influence private production or consumption decisions.
  • The government can redistribute income and wealth in pursuit of some equity objective.

The extent and nature of government intervention varies from country to country and changes over time based on a country’s political, social, cultural and institutional traditions and trends.

Transition to a market economy

Since the market economies outperformed command and mixed economies, therefore it is apparent that government ownership and control of the factors of production constrained growth and prosperity due to operational inefficiency and strategic ineffectiveness. Also due to globalization, there is free flow of products, people and ideas among nations. Together these developments aggravate a fundamental limitation of mixed and command economies. Market economies create powerful individual incentives that stimulate innovation, whereas mixed and command economies seemed to create weak or no incentives.
The process of transition to a market economy varies from country to country. It largely depends on how well the country’s government can dismantle its central planning system and consumer sovereignty in its economic environment. The success of transition appears to be intricately linked to how well the government deals with privatizing the means of production, deregulating the economy, protecting property rights, reforming fiscal and monetary policies and applying antitrust regulation.

Privatization

It is the process of transfer of ownership and control of factors of production from government to private owners. It will lead to a certain level of unemployment. Privatization improves general market efficiency and shapes the relationship between supply and demand. Privatization reduces govt debt by eliminating the need to subsidize typically inefficient, money loosing state owned enterprises. Privatization leads to up gradation of technologies, improvisation of business practices and creation of innovations.

Deregulation

Deregulation involves relaxing or removing restrictions on the free operation of markets and business practices. The country, by deregulating, makes it more attractive for MNEs. The result will be employee generation, exports, infrastructure development, knowledge growth, sectoral growth. The govt gains taxes in the form of (income taxes, company taxes, and indirect taxes). It increases the productivity due to less regulation compliance. Therefore the resulting freedom and savings encourage managers to make the investments into the innovations that then lead to economic growth. The disadvantage in deregulation is, the control remains elsewhere instead of the host country.

Property Rights

Protection of property rights means that entrepreneurs who come up with an innovation can legally claim the present and future rewards of their idea, effort and risk. The protection also supports a competitive economic environment by assuring investors and entrepreneurs that they will prosper from their hard work.

Fiscal and Monetary Reform

Adopting free market principles requires a government to rely on market-oriented instruments for macroeconomic stabilization, set strict budget limits, and use market based policies to manage the supply. Using the market to enforce fiscal and monetary discipline leads to stable economic environments that attract the investors, companies and capital needed to start and finance growth.

Antitrust Laws

By enforcing antitrust laws, governments can prevent monopolies from exploiting consumers and restraining market growth. The government’s intent on liberalizing its economic system must legislate antitrust laws that encourage the development of industries with as many competing businesses as the market will sustain. In such industries, prices are kept low by the forces of competition.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Political Risk.

Political Risk
It is the risk that political decisions or events in a country negatively affect the profitability or sustainability of an investment. Political risk is the chance that political decisions, events or conditions in a country will affect the business environment in ways that may adversely affect the business of MNEs.

  • Political risk matters most to any MNE in the world.
  • When companies choose among the 200 countries, they consider political risk to be very important.
  • The lower the political risk, the better the business opportunity and in turn higher the country attractiveness.

Causes of Political Risk

  1. Govt. Actions.
  2. Civil Strife/Unrest/Disorder.
  3. International War.
  4. Harmful actions against people.
  5. Change in political ideology

1. Govt Actions

Govt. action can change the country's attractiveness. Governments can put restrictions to the sectors in which business can be done.

Govt puts many acts to impose restrictions on the sectors like FERA and MRTP Act.

FERA Act (Foreign Exchange Regulation Act)-1973

An act to consolidate and amend the law regulating certain payments, dealings in foreign exchange and securities, transactions indirectly affecting foreign exchange and the import and export of currency, for the conservation of the foreign exchange resources of the country and the proper utilisation theory in the interests of the economic development of the country.

MRTP (Monopolistic and Restrictive Trade Practices Act)-1969

MRTP was enacted

  • To ensure that the operation of the economic system does not result in the concentration of economic power in hands of few.
  • To provide for the control of monopolies.
  • To prohibit monopolistic and restrictive trade.

2. Civil Strife/Unrest/Disorder

  • It Could be due to economic unrest.
  • People unrest can also happen because people are unhappy with the present govt.
  • It affects company’s operations and profits.
  • It can lead to damage of company’s property.
  • Eg: French Revolution

3. International War

  • Damages or destroys the company’s local assets.
  • Eg. When Iraq invaded Kuwait, there were many MNEs by virtue of management contracts. Many Indian companies were also operating.
  • MNEs are bound to leave the country during war.

4. Harmful actions against people

  • Injurious actions that target the local staff of the company; often involves kidnapping, extortion and terrorism.
  • Generally seen in lesser developed countries.

5. Change in Political Ideology

  • Political ideology can change with the change in political government.
  • Every government has a different perception about the MNEs.
  • In case of Monarchy, like saudi arabia,when a new prince comes in , chances are there will be changes in political environement.

Impact of Political Risk

  1. Expropriation or Nationalization.
  2. Disruption of property.
  3. Unilateral breach of contract.
  4. Restrictions on repatriation of profit.
  5. Differing points of view.
  6. Discriminatory taxation policies.

1. Expropriation or Nationalization

  • A govt or political faction unilaterally takes ownership of the company’s local assets. Compensation to the company, if at all forthcoming is generally a trivial percent of the asset’s value. This event was common in the 1960s and 1970, but is rare today. However in any event the losses are immense.
  • Sometimes the company’s assets are taken over by the host country with or without adequate compensation. It is generally a hostile takeover, a mandate and not a choice which is given to the company. It generally happens in developing countries for natural resources like oil, diamond when the host country feels that there is no value addition.
  • Eg. Cuba, Chile, Venezuela, Uganda, Zambia, Uthopia, Iran

2. Disruption of property

  • Kidnapping, thefts occur.
  • Strikes happen resulting loss of profit (opportunity loss) in addition to property getting damaged.

3. Unilateral breach of contract

  • Decision of a government to repudiate the original contract that it had negotiated with the foreign company. The revision penalizes the firm and rewards the nation by reallocating the profits of the local operations.
  • In addition this extends to government approval of a local company’s choice to breach its contracts with its foreign partner.
  • In some countries the new govt might not honour the previous management contracts / leases.

4. Restrictions on repatriation of profit

The govt arbitrarily set limits on the gross amount of profits a foreign company can remit from its local operation.

5.Differing points of view

Differing interpretation of labour rights and environmental obligations create backlash problems in the foreign company’s home market.

6. Discriminatory taxation policies

A foreign company bears a higher tax burden than the local firm, or in some cases, the more favoured foreign company, due to its nationality.

How to access political risk

Managers use 3 approaches to predict political risk :

  1. Analyzing past trends.
  2. Taking expert opinion.
  3. Examining the social and economic conditions that might lead to such political risk

1. Analyzing past trends

Companies cannot help but get influenced by past patterns of political risk. Management can make predictions based on past patterns. Predicting risk using past trends holds many dangers. However political situations may change rapidly for better or worse as far as foreign companies are concerned.
Examples :

  • FDI into US fell sharply after 2001 terrorist attack in NY because foreign firms saw the US as less safe than before.
  • Expropriation of property occurred frequently in the 1970s and early 1980s, but it has been less important in recent years.
  • In Pakistan, initially democracy ruled and then dictatorship where as in India it has always been democratic in spite of change in governments.

2. Expert Opinions

Companies may rely on experts’ opinion about a country’s political situation, with the purpose of ascertaining how influential people may sway future political events affecting business.

Companies read the statements made by political leaders both in and out of office to determine their philosophies on business in general, foreign input to business, the means of affecting economic changes and their feelings toward given foreign countries. Managers visit the country and listen to a cross section of opinions. Embassy officials and foreign and local business people are useful sources of opinions about the probability and direction of change.. Journalists, academicians, middle level local govt authorities and labor leaders usually reveal their own attitudes, which often reflect changing political conditions that may affect the business sector. Companies may determine opinions more systematically by relying on analysts with experience in a country. These analysts might rate a country on specific political conditions that could lead to problems for foreign businesses. A company also may rely on commercial risk assessment services, such as those published by Business International, Economist Intelligence Unit, Euro money.

In this method companies should examine views of govt decision makers and then get a cross-section of opinions and use expert analysts.

3. Economic and Social Perspective (Semantec Technique)

There are two economic parameters i.e. aspiration level and achievement level. Aspiration level of people spreads with education, TV, Internet where as the achievement level increases with income level. Differences in aspiration level and achievement level leads to frustration. If disparity between the two is very high year after year, then the frustration level increases. Higher the frustration level, higher the political risk in terms of unrest.Companies may examine country’s social and economic conditions that could lead to the peoples’ level of aspirations and the country’s level of welfare and expectations. If there is a great deal of frustration in a country, groups may disrupt business by calling general strikes and destroying property and supply lines.

Types of Political Risk

There are four types of political risk

  1. Systemic.
  2. Procedural
  3. Distributive
  4. Catastrophic

1. Systemic Political Risk

These kinds of risks are inherent in system. Domestic and International companies face political risks created by shifts in public policy or change in political ideology. These regulations alter the business system for all companies, so not necessarily meant for only foreign companies. Then again, a government may target its public policy initiatives toward a specific economic sector that it believes foreign companies unduly dominate. Systemic changes do not necessarily create political risks that reduce potential profits.
Eg. In 1990, newly elected Argentina govt. began a radical program of deregulation and privatization of the state centred economy.

2. Procedural political risk

Companies procure from best sources from different countries to have comparative advantage. Globally competent supply chain is required from most competitive/best sources. The three main objectives of supply chain are

  • Lowest cost.
  • Shortest time.
  • Quality and reliability.

Normally supply chain is never short term until there is a war situation. As we get raw materials from across the world, it has to cross borders, so the company faces different levels of risk. Some countries are more corrupt and the company faces many hurdles. The risks are higher in less developed countries. Every day people, products and funds move to different locations in the global market. Each move creates a procedural transaction between units, whether within a company or country. Political actions sometimes create frictions that interfere with these transactions. Government corruption, labour disputes and a partisan judicial system can significantly raise the cost of getting things done. Corruption among custom officials can push a foreign firm to agree to pay for special assistance, if it wants to clear goods through customs.

3. Distributive Political Risk

MNE and host country cannot do without each other. MNE is doing a business in host country and thus generating employment. But if the host country feels that the MNE is capable of doing much more than at present and mostly much of it is going currently to other countries then host country wants to have a larger share from the MNEs economic gain for its own people and their economic growth. Thus taxation changes can come in.
Many countries see foreign investors as agents of prosperity. As foreign investors achieve greater success, some countries question the distributive justice of the rewards, wondering whether they are getting their fair share. Countries then aim to claim a greater share of rewards but in ways that do not provoke the company to leave. They do so by revising their tax codes, regulatory structure and monetary policy to capture greater benefits from foreign companies.
Eg. US has highest degree of political risk in world of cigarette companies on matters of taxation, regulation, business practice and liability.

4. Catastrophic Political Risk

These types of risks arise from flash points like ethnic discord, civil disorder or war. Those random political developments adversely affect the operations of all companies in a country. While uncommon, their impact disrupts the business environment for all firms.

Role of Government

  • Interest Articulation: Understand the interests of all stakeholders.
  • Interest Aggregation: Putting it all together in the form of budget. Prior to budget government talks in a structured form to various groups.
  • Policy Making : Legislature.
  • Implementation+Adjudication :
  • Should look forward for the economic cooperation of other countries.
  • Should look for groups which the country joins. A company which has more membership internationally, is more transparent and predictable about its policies.
  • should look for the proper functioning of foreign companies, local companies and small scale industries.

A country’s political environment has enormous implications to managers and companies. A political system is the complete set of institutions, political organizations, interest groups, the relationships between those institutions and the political norms and rules that govern their functions. The purpose of a political system must agree, is that it integrates different groups into a functioning, self sustaining and self governing society. Ultimate test of a political system is its ability to unite a society in the face of divisive pressures of competing ideas and outlooks.